11/29/2023 0 Comments Google trends election 2016![]() ![]() Americans searched most for Hillary’s economic policy, healthcare, global warming and gun control plans. Black Lives Matter polls highest in the US with Hillary while Europe is most interested in her foreign policy. The region also tops charts for interest in abortion policy of Hillary followed by the US and Europe. Oceania is searching more than any region for ISIS and abortion. According to Google trends data, when analysing Hillary’s searches clubbed with electoral issues, China and Japan are searching Trans-Pacific Partnership–a trade pact that Trump wants to scrap. ![]() At the very least, both campaigns would be wise to use it as a sanity check on their own polling on a state-by-state basis, if they are not doing so already.Similarly, the top trending related searches for Hillary in the US included NYPD over its stop and frisk rights, Hillary becoming the unsafe hand, Beyonce and Hillary spirit cooking.Īccording to latest trends data available for November 6, electoral issues clubbed with candidates found interesting trends in searches outside the US more than in the US. Some states had more searching than others, but you’d expect election-related searches to spike across the board as the general election nears. Google Trends appears to be more predictive the higher the search volume (i.e., the more data points). For the Republican primaries, 29 elections were analyzed and Google Trends correctly predicted only about half (the data wasn’t as good for a variety of reasons).īelow are two of his comparisons of Google Trends and actual election results in Missouri (where Obama won) and Florida Nevada (where Clinton won). ![]() Of the remaining 32, Google Trends correctly predicted 27 of the primary elections, or an 84 percent success rate. For the Democratic primaries 37 states were analyzed, and five of those had to be thrown out because of insufficient data. Update: Just to clarify, the analysis looks at both Democratic and Republican primaries. An in-depth analysis of how predictive Google Trends was during the primaries (by Michael Giuffrida, a student in Virginia) shows that in at least half the cases for the Democratic primaries, Google Trends did a good job predicting the outcome. What is great about Google Trends, though, is that you can drill down by state. And there is a likely correlation between search volume and news mentions, which are also compared in the graph above (by pulling in data from Google News). Obviously, it is a close race and sentiment can go either way between now and November. And a Gallup poll shows a tighter race, with Obama at 46 percent verses McCain at 45 percent. poll conducted June 4 and 5, shows Obama ahead by 47 percent to McCain’s 43 percent (Ralph Nader has 6 percent). More traditional polls come to the same conclusion. ![]() If search volume is predictive of election results and the elections were held today, Obama would win. The screen shot above is from a comparison I just did between “Obama” and “McCain” in the U.S. Fortunately, Google lets anyone see the relative popularity of different search terms on Google Trends. But enough of the population does use Google that its search patterns cannot be ignored by either candidate, the press, or anyone interested in the outcome of the election. uses Google, or even uses the Internet, for that matter. If more people are searching on Google for “Obama” than “McCain” does that mean he is more likely to win the election? ![]()
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